Saturday April 24, 2010

Manchester United – Tottenham  1 (odds: 1.5 or 1/2)

Manchester United is chasing Chelsea for the Premier League title and with 3 games left to play they lie in second place with only one point behind and have a great home form, winning 14 games out 17 played at Old Trafford. Tottenham is in 4^th place and hopes to catch that last Champions League spot. United is the better team (with Rooney probably in the starting 11) and with Tottenham’s away form of only 6 wins in 16 games, I’m going with a United win.

Wolverhampton – Blackburn under 2.5 goals (odds: 1.6 or 4/7)

Wolves have the weakest attack in the Premiership, scoring only 28 goals in 35 games and Blackburn have scored only 11 goals in 17 away games this season. Blackburn are safe from relegation and Wolves are 6 points away with only 3 games to go, my guess is that it’s going to be a quiet game in terms of goals.

Sunday April 25, 2010

Sporting Gijon – Real Valladolid under 2.5 goals (odds: 1.8 or 4/5)

Both bottom half teams. Valladolid are fighting to save themselves from relegation, but with little chances, playing away at Gijon, a team 5 points away from the first relegation spot. Both with weak attacks and Gijon with a not so bad defense playing at home.

Fiorentina – Chievo  1 (odds: 1.6 or 4/7)

Fiorentina has little chances of catching a european spot this year, but I think they’ll try anyway. On the other hand Chievo are safe from relegation an away win for them is unnecessary and improbable.

Marseille – Saint Etienne 1 with handicap (odds: 1.8 or 4/5)

I’m playing this game just for the good odds. Saint Etienne is in 17^th place and Marseille the leader of the Ligue 1 and is probably going to win the title. A Marseille win is very likely and a win by 2 goals or more is a good possibility, so let’s go for it.

So these are the games this week. Betting on these five games will bring approximately 12 times the bet amount. Keep in mind this is only a personal opinion (nothing is for sure). Hope you’ll win, hope I’ll win and have fun!

I was expecting things to go a little bit different, silly me. Tuesday’s game, the Mourinho one, was supposed to be the boring one (at least that’s what I was expecting), Inter would defend to the death (actually they did, not important!) bla bla bla goalless draw. Instead we had a cracker of a match, Inter coming from behind and winning 3-1. Mourinho, in my opinion, is a true mastermind, kept his cool and came out the winner, it doesn’t mean that they’re qualified, but the score will surely help.

Quality possession did the trick for Inter, yes Barcelona dominated the game in terms of who passed more and who kept the ball more, but it didn’t count. The italians were great at recovering the ball and their counter attacks were very efficient. I was very impressed by Goran Pandev, the Macedonian striker, who played more as an attacking midfielder, even though he only played about an hour he really gave it his best, he played with dedication, teamwork and almost scored a goal. Diego Milito was clearly the man of the match, scoring a goal and getting two assists, an amazing striker, he’s 30 years old and this is his first year at a major club, I wonder how did he pass unnoticed all these years, what a shame!

But let’s get back to last night’s game. With Bayern scoring a total of five goals in the games with Manchester United and four against Fiorentina and with players like Arjen Robben, Franck Ribery and Ivica Olic on the german side and Lisandro Lopez and Miralem Pjanic on the french side,  I was expecting a very open game. I argued in a previous post that it was going to be a very close encounter, it was, but both teams displayed games unworthy for The Final in Madrid, unworthy even for a Champions League Semi-Final!

In truth Bayern dominated, Lyon came to Munich with the sole purpose not to concede, they failed. Claude Puel’s lack of courage lost Lyon the match and here’s why: Ribery is justly sent of in the 37^th minute, after he brutally fouls Lisandro Lopez, so the french now have an extra player, and what do they do? they defend, with an away goal being crucial, they choose to be cautious. Now with only ten players, naturally Van Gaal takes some precautions and substitutes Ivica Olic, a striker, and brings in a defensive midfielder, Anatoliy Tymoshchuk, and with no reaction from Puel, Bayern surprisingly continue to dominate.

With one team defending, Lyon and with one team unable to attack efficiently, Bayern, the game is slowed down, until the 54^th minute, when Jeremy Toulalan, one of Lyon’s central defenders (not his usual playing position), gets eliminated, bad night for Puel, bad night for Toulalan, bad night for football, but perfect opportunity for Van Gaal, who brings in Mario Gomez, a striker, again clearly showing his intentions. With the game balance restored, Bayern push even harder and get the winning goal, by who else but Arjen Robben, with a deflected lucky long shot.

Both games, even though of different levels of play, showed us that skilled, experienced and talented managers can make the difference in a game. Sadly, in my opinion The Final, no matter who will play in it, will be a one-sided affair with Inter or Barcelona winning the trophy.

Bayern eliminated Fiorentina and Manchester United to get this far and the germans are slight favorites tonight, playing at home and being in better form, scoring 7 goals in their latest Bundesliga game against Hannover. Last time Bayern won the competition was in 2001, beating Valencia in the final. They’re in first place in the Bundesliga and they hope to win their 22nd title this year. Bayern’s boss is the experienced dutch manager Louis Van Gaal, who has won the competition with Ajax in 1995.

The underdogs are the french, they eliminated Real Madrid and Bordeaux to reach the semi-finals and they lie in third place in the Ligue 1, with almost no chance of winning the title this year. They’re famous for their record-breaking streak of seven successive national titles (2002-2008)and they have played in the Champions League eleven times and have never reached this stage of the competition. The team’s manager is Claude Puel, who has reached the semi-finals as a player in 1994 with Monaco.

Badstuber and Mark van Bommel will not play for Bayern tonight, the first being suspended and the second out injured. For Lyon, Mathieu Bodmer, Francois Clerc and Jean-Alain Boumsong are out, all injured. The probable line-ups are:

Bayern(4-4-2): Butt; Lahm, Van Buyten, Demichelis, Contento; Robben, Schweinsteiger, Pranjic, Ribery; Olic, Mueller

Lyon(4-2-3-1): Lloris; Reveillere, Cris, Toulalan, Cissokho; Kallstrom, Makoun; Bastos, Pjanic, Delgado; Lisandro

The key player at Bayern is Arjen Robben, the dutch midfielder has had an incredible season so far scoring 19 goals in all competitions this season (3 of them in the Champions League). He has scored the decisive goal against Manchester United in the quarter finals, helping the team qualify.

Miralem Pjanic is the man to watch at Lyon, the 20-year-old Bosnian attacking midfielder scored 4 goals this season in the Champions League and helped Lyon eliminate Real Madrid in the first round of the knock out round.

My prediction is that Lyon won’t win, the game seems pretty balanced, I’m going with a draw, maybe 1-1, but Bayern’s victory wouldn’t surprise me, it’s going to be a very close encounter tonight at the Allianz Arena.

Two very different teams, with two different managers. Inter with Jose Mourinho, a great experienced tactician with a powerful personality, always planning every aspect of the game, never leaving anything to chance. He’s style of play isn’t always pleasant to look at, but his teams have always been efficient and hard-working. He has already been at this stage of the competition twice, once with Porto and once with Chelsea.

On the other hand, we have Josep Guardiola, Barcelona’s manager. He loves attacking football and he has made Barcelona a spectacular goal scoring and passing machine, always playing beautiful football, he has won the competition in his first year at Barcelona.

Both teams share something in common: teamwork. Both teams have world-class players, but what really drives them forward is unity. Inter uses it to annihilate her opponents, whilst Barcelona to tire them playing by an incredible passing game.

The key Inter players are Maicon, a powerful tireless brazilian right back, Wesley Sneijder, the very technical dutch playmaker, a true number 10 and Samuel Eto’o the fast cameroonian goalscorer. But like I said, Inter’s main advantage is teamwork and discipline, which is going to be tough for Barcelona to crack.

2009 Ballon d’Or winner Lionel Messi is the main man at Barcelona scoring 40 goals in all competitions this year (8 in the Champions League). Xavi is a pass master, he’s the “brain” of the team dictating tempo and coordinating the team’s game. Also Zlatan Ibrahimovic, the former Inter and swedish striker is back from an injury and will be available for tonight’s game. Even though, Barcelona is primarily an offensive team, it’s captain is the 32-year-old defender, Carles Puyol,  a legend at the club, playing only for Barcelona.

Barcelona is missing Andres Iniesta, the midfielder is out injured, whilst Inter is without young italian defender Davide Santon.

The probable line-ups are:

Inter (4-2-3-1): Julio Cesar, Maicon, Lucio, Samuel, Chivu; Zanetti, Cambiasso; Pandev, Sneijder, Eto’o; Milito

Barcelona (4-3-3): Valdes, Alves, Pique, Puyol, Maxwell; Toure, Xavi, Busquets; Messi, Ibrahimovic, Pedro

Barcelona are the favourites to win the competition. They are reigning champions, but I wouldn’t rule out Inter. I think both legs will be very close encounters. Both teams also met in the group stage of the competition, Barcelona winning 2-0 at home and Inter snatching a goalless draw at Giuseppe Meazza. I’m going with Mourinho on this one and in my opinion, Barcelona will not score more than once tonight and I think that Inter is going to win. I’m going with 1-0 or 2-1 at most in favor of the italians.

This weekend is Gameweek 35 . It’s not an ordinary week, in this  gameweek we’ll have 11 fixtures instead of 10. Aston Villa and Hull City are playing double fixtures, so the obvious choice for the captaincy is player from these two teams, but which one?

Hull City are in a relegation spot and they have two difficult games, the first is away at Birmingham and the second is at home with Aston Villa, both opponents having very good defenses and Hull playing very poorly in attack this season scoring only 32 goals in 33 games. The team’s highest scoring player is Stephen Hunt but unfortunately he’s out injured. The team’s attack is very weak, the team’s ‘best’ striker, Vennegoor of Hesselink, scoring only 3 goals this season. The truth is that most managers won’t rely on a Hull City player to be their captain and the ones who do will probably go for the goalkeeper Myhill (priced at £4.1m) hoping that the he will get a clean sheet or go with Jimmy Bullard (priced at £5.6m) the team’s set piece taker hoping he’ll score from a free kick or penalty or maybe get an assist.

Most managers are probably gonna go with an Aston Villa player as their team’s captain. There is no obvious choice here, Aston Villa seemingly having two very easy fixtures and possibly scoring in both games and getting at least a clean sheet. Villa’s matches will both be away, one with Portsmouth (relegated and with little motivation) and with Hull City (a team facing relegation). Keep in mind that Aston Villa is still fighting for an european spot and is probably going to be very motivated. Now let’s see some possible candidates:

Brad Friedel (priced at £6.0m) is the team’s goalkeeper and hasn’t missed a minute this season from the team’s starting eleven. He could possibly get two clean sheets, but in a worst case scenario could get none. I still think that probably he’ll get one clean sheet and maybe some saves.

The defenders seem to be a better option than the keeper, having the possibility of scoring or getting an assist. If price is not a problem Richard Dunne (priced at £6.7m) and Carlos Cuellar (priced at £6.1m) are very good options together scoring 5 goals this season, but will they get that double clean sheet?

I think only two midfielders should be considered for the armband, James Milner (priced at £8.4m) and Ashley Young (priced at £8.5m). Both are assist powerhouses, 12 for Milner and 11 for Young and each scoring 5 goals and are similar priced. Young seems to be in better form and many will choose him, but keep in mind that Milner is relatively cheaper and has way more bonus points.

The team’s top goalscorer is Gabriel Agbonlahor (priced at £8.4m) with 12 goals this season and behind him is John Carew (priced at £7.7m), with 8 goals. The second is cheaper, but Agbonlahor is the man with the goal for Villa and probably will score at least once this gameweek.

Personally my team’s captain is going to be Ashley Young. I first wanted to go with Cuellar hoping that he’ll get tha double clean sheet, but I realised that wasn’t a realistic approach. So I’m going with Young, first of all because I don’t have Agbonlahor in my team (no place and no money) and second of all because I’ve seen him play and his game has improved in the last few matches and so I’m hoping for a big payout.

Saturday April 17, 2010

Birmingham – Hull City under 2.5 goals (odds: 1.80 or 17/20)

Hull City hasn’t won an away game all season and scored only 10 goals in 17 games away from home and is facing relegation. Birmingham is sitting comfortably in 9^th place scoring 17 goals this season at home and losing only 2 games.

Schalke – Borussia  Mönchengladbach  1 (odds: 1.35 or 4/11)

Schalke is in second place in the Bundesliga and trailing Bayern Munich for the first spot, being two points behind. Borussia  M’gladbach on the other hand is in 11^th place, safe from relegation and with no chances at a european spot and with only 2 victories away from home, looks like a sitting duck.

Wolfsburg – Werder Bremen over 2.5 goals (odds: 1.45 or 4/9)

Out of 15 games at home this season, 14 have been over 2.5 goals for Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen have scored 31 goals in 15 away games this season so it’s going to be a spectacular game.

Sunday April 18, 2010

Portsmouth – Aston Villa  2 (odds: 1.70 or 8/11)

This game has Aston Villa written all over it. With Portsmouth relegated and Aston Villa chasing a european spot for next season and with a better team and better motivated players, the team from Birmingham needs a win.

Lazio – AS Roma  2 (odds: 1.95 or 19/20)

I won’t lie, this is a tough one. AS Roma is leading the Serie A, but Inter is second and trailing with only one point behind, so Roma needs a win. Even if Lazio has had a bad season lying in 16^th place (6 points away from the first relegation spot) it is still a derby game, anything could happen. You should keep in mind that both teams share the same stadium and Roma practically will play on home ground.

So these are the games this week. Betting on these five games will bring aproximately 12 times the bet amount. Keep in mind this is only a personal opinion (nothing is for sure). Hope you’ll win, hope I’ll win and have fun!